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China's upcoming 14th five-year plan (2021-2025) will continue to highlight technology and capacity upgrades as the core of its semiconductor self-sufficiency strategy, with foundry capacity projected to expand 40% from the preceding plan and fabrication process expected to advance to 7nm, according to Digitimes Research.
Bolstered by national policies in the 13th five-year plan, China's IC manufacturing industry is expected to see combined revenues double to CNY240 billion (US$34.28 billion) in 2020 from 2016, and may also move 12nm to production by the end of the year after having volume produced 14nm process.
But China's IC self-sufficiency rate is still far lower than the goal of 40% set in the 13th five-year plan, and its chip fabrication technology still lags behind international peers by three generations. This, coupled with the US-China trade war, will add uncertainties to the future development of China's IC manufacturing industry.
Digitimes Research believes that the lingering US-China trade tensions will prompt China to step up efforts in boosting its IC self-sufficiency, including leveraging the National IC Industry Investment Fund (Big Fund) to develop its 7nm and specialty processes and expand its monthly capacity to an equivalent of one million 12-inch wafers, sharply up from its 13th five-year goal.